Mackinac Island GOP Straw Poll

The envelope please....

And the Winner is...
According to the straw poll of Michigan's grassroots Republicans. For the governor’s race… Rick Snyder the successful businessman won convincingly. The Attorney General race went to former Court of Appeals Judge Bill Schuette. And the Sec. of State race was won by State Sen. Michelle McManus.
What do these results really mean? If one is familiar with the August 2007 Iowa Straw poll for the GOP Presidential race, one knows that there is much more to be gleaned from the results. The results from the most recent presidential Iowa straw poll showed Mitt Romney winning but not by the numbers expected. He outspent everyone else by ridiculous amounts. As a result, He came out weakened. Sam Brownback was the next biggest spender and needed to place second to convince donors he was viable. He came in third. He dropped out shortly thereafter. Second place went to Mike Huckabee. This surprising result catapulted him to the status of “top tier” candidates. His campaign held out to the end.
John McCain avoided the Iowa Straw Poll and had not presence there. Predictably, he received less than one percent of the vote. This was not a negative per se. As the only candidate from both major parties who publicly opposed corn based ethanol, he knew he had no chance and chose to lose on his own terms. When the Iowa Primary came in January of 2008, it was won by Huckabee with Romney a distant second. McCain tied with Fred Thompson for third. McCain roared back to life less than a week later in New Hampshire.
The press and media favorites were Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. They never were serious contenders. Neither put together the grassroots organization that winning requires. Ron Paul was a constant presence, but could never add to his limited Libertarian base. In the end it was McCain’s powerful organization that made the difference. (note: Powerful organizations can still be beat. Just ask Hillary Clinton)
Previous years conferences on Mackinac Island also showed early glimpses of future results. Mitt Romney (a Michigander) was stunned by the strength of McCain’s organization. The eventual primary result verified Romney’s weakness when he won the state by single digit percentage points.
Similarly, U.S. Senate candidate Keith Butler was considered to be the clear favorite. Jerry Zandstra’s strong showing demonstrated how weak the support truly was. This convinced Mike Bouchard to enter the race and he became the eventual nominee to run against Sen. Stabenow
Rich DeVos made an impressive appearance on the island and his strong showing convinced everyone else to get out or stay out of the race.
So early straw polls do matter. U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra chose not to have a major presence on the island. One seriously has to question if he could have had one if he wanted to. His support is strong in his own congressional district and also in nearby Grand Rapids, but he has spent little time in the last four years putting together a statewide organization and developing name recognition. It is likely that Like McCain in Iowa’s straw poll, he chose to lose on his own terms. Still, he finished within reach of Mike Cox and Mike Bouchard.
The surprise in the poll came in that Mike Cox, who had a strong and prominent presence on the island did not do better. In previous years, one could count on seeing hordes of Cox t-shirts. His successful run for Attorney General allowed for him to establish a statewide organization. Will Cox be the Mitt Romney who should have won the Iowa Primary but was upset by an outsider?
Similarly, the Bouchard and Land ticket should also have been strong. Lands eager volunteers were legendary in years past. Her statewide network and Bouchard’s connections from the U.S. Senate race should have resulted in a strong showing. I had anticipated a close early race between Cox and Bouchard. The fact that their support is identical is noteworthy.
Clearly the real winner in not only numbers, but also momentum was Rick Snyder. A political newcomer, he seems to have learned quickly how to develop a statewide organization and a compelling message. As the state of Michigan lingers in its seventh years of economic depression, the regret of not voting for businessman Devos in 2006 haunts many voters. Snyder may be able to tap into this sentiment. His not being a career politician also favors his chances as the national mode seems weary of both Republicans and Democrats.
One thing is for sure. It is far too early to make predictions. Many things can happen and new faces may appear suddenly. But if the Michigan Leadership Conference Straw Poll is a first snap shop, it shows the race could be long and hard fought. Hopefully party unity stays strong in the end.